Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa717…3bbe sports 636 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$402 (-2%) realized −$465 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%305W / 318L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$378
7 days−$468
14 days−$496
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$750
other 2% +$168
crypto 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +5.0% -5.0% 30% 30% -39.6%
≤30d 118 +0.5% -9.0% 38% 38% -21.0%
≤90d 498 -17.0% -24.9% 39% 37% -20.5%
all 623 -4.8% -13.9% 49% 46% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 46% -12.4%
10% -22.1% 41% -20.8%
15% -29.6% 35% -28.5%
20% -36.5% 28% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$28 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized−$465
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses305 / 318
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions13
Markets (closed)623 / 636
History coverage128d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? No 47¢ 62¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+73%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+62%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Portugal 23¢ 14¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-37%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+192%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$93 +365%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 +$21 +81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 −$26 -50%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$258 +5013%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $24 +$36 +145%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $72 +$40 +55%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $157 −$157 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $76 +$68 +89%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $36 +$39 +110%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$8 -59%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $19 +$18 +94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $36 −$17 -46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$17 +112%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$5 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 23¢ $15 37m
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 22h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $26 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 22h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $61 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 67¢ $23 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 67¢ $23 45h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 56¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $60 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 91¢ $111 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $36 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $144 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $72 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $76 3d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $76 3d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 52¢ $76 3d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY 9z 27¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.62 · official $337.63 (match) · 1492 history records