Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa71b…7947 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$20
politics 29% −$14
sports 7% −$2
crypto 6% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 129 -2.3% -11.6% 16% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 4% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage131d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $281 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $252 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $282 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $306 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 23 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $307 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $285 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $317 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $448 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $235 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $245 19d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $245 22d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $281 22d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $281 22d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $252 22d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $252 22d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $282 23d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $282 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $273 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $273 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $306 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $306 25d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $218 25d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $218 26d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 26d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 27d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 27d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 27d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $218 27d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $218 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $307 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $307 28d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $316 28d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $316 28d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $222 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 383 history records