Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa720…4e2d sports 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$809 (-42%) realized −$809 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%79W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$297
7 days+$294
14 days+$289
30 days+$561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$805
crypto 20% +$296
other 3% −$7
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.8% -0.7% 67% 56% +53.6%
≤30d 38 +13.4% +2.6% 66% 50% +61.3%
≤90d 135 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 49% -33.7%
all 135 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 49% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 49% -33.7%
10% -18.7% 44% -40.0%
15% -26.5% 36% -45.8%
20% -33.7% 31% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$21 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$809
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses79 / 56
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage44d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $291 +$229 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$67 +65%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $2 +$3 +152%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +133%
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini Jun 16 $2 +$3 +114%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
ITF Milano: Fausto Tabacco vs Kirill Kivattsev Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $187 +$281 +150%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 09 $1 +$2 +197%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 09 $2 +$2 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $81 −$14 -17%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: LFO vs Bushido Wildcats (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe R Jun 05 $1 $0 +40%
Counter-Strike: SINQU vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - European Pro League Regula Jun 05 $1 $0 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs Jun 05 $1 +$1 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges Jun 05 $1 +$2 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 05 $2 +$2 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 05 $2 +$2 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Walczaki (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals May 23 $1 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Gr May 23 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT Sou May 23 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series # May 23 $1 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 23 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual May 23 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - BC Game Maste May 23 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: Alzon vs Vexa (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group C May 23 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Isurus (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs May 23 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 23 $2 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Flame Team 83¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 97¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 39¢ $1 2d
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 78¢ $1 2d
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 23¢ $1 2d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $1 2d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 39¢ $2 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $2 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $5 2d
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini BUY Luca Potenza 46¢ $2 7d
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar BUY Raquel Gonzalez Vilar 36¢ $1 7d
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli BUY Giorgio Tabacco 79¢ $1 7d
ITF Milano: Fausto Tabacco vs Kirill Kivattsev BUY Fausto Tabacco 53¢ $1 7d
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel BUY Laia Petretic 55¢ $2 7d
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri BUY Yasmine Mansouri 98¢ $1 7d
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Manuel Mazza 81¢ $1 7d
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee BUY Erika Sema 62¢ $1 7d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) SELL Spurs 60¢ $468 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records