Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A7 0xa722…a665 world 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%40W / 77L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$11
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$11
economics 25% −$5
other 10% +$13
sports 9% +$2
politics 2% +$4
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 38 -1.3% -10.7% 24% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 47 -0.9% -10.4% 23% 2% -9.5%
all 117 +3.6% -6.3% 34% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 5% -9.3%
10% -15.3% 3% -18.0%
15% -23.5% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.0% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses40 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage457d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 47¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $436 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $526 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 20 $186 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $1,403 −$1 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $179 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $163 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $201 −$10 -5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $339 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $167 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $113 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 +$1 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $165 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $189 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $293 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $148 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $365 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $172 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $230 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $301 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $261 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $885 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 −$1 -29%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 28 $145 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $5 −$2 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $155 +$23 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $167 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $7 $0 +5%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $71 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $2,430 −$4 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $592 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,180 +$2 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $11 $0 -2%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $179 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $150 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $179 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $130 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $160 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $179 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $179 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $148 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $163 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $162 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $86 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $74 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.07 · official $179.07 (match) · 478 history records