trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +12.5% | +1.8% | 90% | 60% | -7.6% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +12.2% | +1.6% | 91% | 55% | -7.3% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 79% | 42% | -16.5% |
| all | 32 | -2.7% | -12.0% | 78% | 38% | -14.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.0% | 38% | -14.2% |
| 10% | -20.4% | 12% | -22.4% |
| 15% | -28.1% | 9% | -29.9% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 3% | -36.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? | No | 91¢ | 96¢ | $100 | $106 | +$6 (+6%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? | Jun 18 | $202 | −$171 | -85% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? | Jun 17 | $153 | +$87 | +57% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? | Jun 17 | $50 | +$9 | +18% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? | Jun 17 | $50 | +$5 | +10% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? | Jun 17 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? | Jun 17 | $101 | +$11 | +11% |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? | Jun 17 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? | Jun 16 | $101 | +$39 | +38% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? | Jun 16 | $51 | +$24 | +48% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? | Jun 16 | $51 | +$10 | +20% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 26? | May 26 | $40 | +$4 | +10% |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 11? | May 11 | $39 | +$6 | +14% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 5? | Apr 05 | $200 | +$19 | +10% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 5? | Apr 05 | $199 | +$25 | +12% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 4? | Apr 04 | $200 | −$24 | -12% |
| Magic vs. Mavericks | Apr 04 | $10 | −$7 | -74% |
| Raptors vs. Grizzlies | Apr 04 | $200 | +$1 | +0% |
| Jazz vs. Rockets | Apr 04 | $201 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 3? | Apr 03 | $32 | +$4 | +13% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 29? | Mar 29 | $51 | −$41 | -81% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 28? | Mar 29 | $47 | +$4 | +9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 27? | Mar 27 | $40 | +$7 | +18% |
| Timberwolves vs. Celtics | Mar 23 | $202 | −$201 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 22? | Mar 22 | $53 | +$3 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11? | Mar 11 | $10 | +$2 | +25% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? | Mar 11 | $47 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4? | Mar 11 | $43 | +$5 | +11% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on Febr | Mar 04 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 14? | Feb 17 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Hawks vs. Timberwolves | Feb 10 | $1,002 | $0 | -0% |
| Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Feb 03 | $14 | −$12 | -88% |
| Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Feb 01 | $14 | +$1 | +4% |