Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa72a…5685 sports 328 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,728 (-9%) realized −$3,481 · open −$247
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%135W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$545est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$808
14 days−$1,022
30 days−$900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,668
other 8% −$1,636
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -30.0% -36.7% 36% 36% -38.4%
≤30d 150 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 45% -13.9%
≤90d 325 -16.1% -24.1% 42% 41% -18.4%
all 325 -16.1% -24.1% 42% 41% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 41% -18.4%
10% -31.3% 39% -26.2%
15% -38.0% 35% -33.3%
20% -44.1% 28% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$104 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$3,481
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses135 / 190
Est. fees paid−$545
Open positions3
Markets (closed)325 / 328
History coverage79d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs NAVI Junior 35¢ 30¢ $79 $67 −$12 (-16%)
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Under 51¢ 1¢ $106 $1 −$105 (-99%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 35¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $100 +$97 +97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $191 −$188 -98%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $111 +$44 +40%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $44 +$76 +172%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $6 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $234 −$229 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $104 −$102 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $178 −$176 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $307 −$303 -99%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$24 +49%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $77 −$76 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 +$10 +54%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $192 +$136 +71%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $187 −$184 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $250 +$198 +79%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $96 −$94 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 13 $70 +$94 +134%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $130 +$74 +57%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $226 +$211 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $160 +$70 +44%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $202 −$2 -1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $122 +$105 +86%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $16 +$11 +67%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $72 +$149 +206%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $479 +$204 +43%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $17 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $15 +$7 +48%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 08 $290 −$286 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 08 $208 −$206 -99%
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 08 $92 −$90 -98%
Game Handicap: VP.P (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5) Jun 08 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 08 $92 −$91 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $148 +$147 +100%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 07 $589 +$190 +32%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 07 $434 +$85 +20%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 06 $24 +$28 +117%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Play Jun 06 $262 −$260 -99%
Map Handicap: G2.A (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) Jun 06 $95 −$93 -98%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $162 −$158 -98%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 05 $183 −$179 -98%
Game Handicap: MKF (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $108 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $132 2h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 50¢ $100 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $191 8h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 14¢ $13 9h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 35¢ $81 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 36¢ $44 32h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $32 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $111 33h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $31 34h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 58¢ $6 34h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $6 34h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $126 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $63 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 29¢ $45 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $104 2d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 55¢ $178 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $307 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 43¢ $2 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 44¢ $75 4d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $31 4d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 67¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 47¢ $187 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $42 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $3 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $3 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $3 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $3 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 58¢ $137 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.30 · official $60.35 · 743 history records