Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A7 0xa72b…4004 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%44W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$11
crypto 10% +$2
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 -1.6% -11.0% 79% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses44 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage493d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 05 $44 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 13 $25 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $5,185 −$10 -0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 18 $55 $0 -1%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 22 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 31d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $53 31d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $49 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $53 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 150d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $61 151d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $6 180d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $22 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $44 212d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $34 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $34 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 301d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 301d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $47 303d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $22 333d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $37 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 364d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.13 · official $59.13 (match) · 117 history records