Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa72e…eaaa world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$2
other 8% −$9
politics 7% $0
crypto 6% +$1
sports 4% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 57% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 15 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 0% -9.0%
all 29 -3.9% -13.1% 52% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 3% -9.1%
10% -21.4% 3% -17.8%
15% -29.0% 3% -25.8%
20% -35.9% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage490d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $110 +$3 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $44 +$1 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $6 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $45 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $2 −$1 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 23 $6 $0 -4%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $7 −$7 -92%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Mar 31 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $16 +$1 +3%
Lafayette vs. Holy Cross Mar 20 $8 +$8 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 43¢ $13 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 43¢ $35 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 43¢ $48 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $13 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $32 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $44 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $28 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $16 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $41 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $3 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $21 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $18 36h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $41 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $25 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records