Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa730…dd50 crypto 392 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (238 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,401 (+5%) realized +$1,401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%164W / 311L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day238.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$799
other 1% −$18
sports 1% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (238 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -53.1% -57.6% 22% 22% -45.4%
≤30d 475 -21.3% -28.8% 35% 35% -21.6%
≤90d 475 -21.3% -28.8% 35% 35% -21.6%
all 475 -21.3% -28.8% 35% 35% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover238.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 35% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 34% -29.1%
15% -41.8% 34% -35.9%
20% -47.5% 34% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$62 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses164 / 311
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)475 / 392
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day238.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 475 Trades
no open positions (294 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 16 $396 −$338 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $53 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $50 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $350 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $194 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records