Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A7 0xa733…3456 crypto 222 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$396 (+9%) realized +$476 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%101W / 115L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$358
other 7% −$140
sports 3% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.7% -24.7% 20% 20% -44.4%
≤30d 16 -21.9% -29.4% 19% 19% -50.3%
≤90d 216 +1.7% -7.9% 47% 45% -3.8%
all 216 +1.7% -7.9% 47% 45% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 45% -3.8%
10% -16.8% 44% -13.0%
15% -24.8% 42% -21.4%
20% -32.2% 36% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$476
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses101 / 115
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)216 / 222
History coverage59d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 36¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 −$66 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$30 -30%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$28 +542%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 15 $12 −$7 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 15 $11 +$25 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 15 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 15 $31 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 15 $10 +$19 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 11 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 09 $21 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 09 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 08 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 08 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 08 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 08 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 08 $2 +$26 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 02 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 02 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 02 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 02 $46 −$25 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 02 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 02 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 02 $26 +$12 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 30¢ $15 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $69 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $70 21h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $9 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $7 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $7 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 18¢ $15 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $41 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.63 · official $2.63 (match) · 516 history records