Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa734…f992 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 35% +$1
politics 13% $0
finance 6% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 14 +1.3% -8.4% 36% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +1.3% -8.4% 36% 7% -9.5%
all 34 +1.3% -8.4% 44% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -9.3%
10% -17.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage459d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $39 +$1 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $83 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $41 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +21%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $40 $0 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 20 $11 $0 +2%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 May 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 46h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $39 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $39 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $20 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $20 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $13 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $20 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $5 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $36 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records