Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa738…e743 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$82 (-10%) realized −$61 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$333
14 days+$281
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$85
sports 44% +$351
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +45.9% +32.0% 67% 67% +68.7%
≤30d 28 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 50% +32.6%
≤90d 28 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 50% +32.6%
all 28 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 50% +32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 50% +32.6%
10% -16.9% 46% +19.9%
15% -24.9% 46% +8.3%
20% -32.3% 36% -2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$16 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage18d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $126 $105 −$21 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $63 −$62 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $32 +$31 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $19 +$13 +65%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $14 +$5 +38%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners AND Will Croatia win on 202 Jun 24 $101 +$298 +294%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $87 +$15 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Jun 23 $20 +$67 +338%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$4 +60%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 +$20 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$13 +54%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$8 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 64¢ $63 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $63 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 50¢ $32 2h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 60¢ $19 3h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 72¢ $14 5h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil BUY 23¢ $29 3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners AND Will Croatia win on 202 BUY 25¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $87 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND BUY 22¢ $20 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $11 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 6d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 74¢ $7 6d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $3 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 6d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $2 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $58 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $38 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 97¢ $38 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 11d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $10 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.97 · official $104.97 (match) · 69 history records