Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa739…19c8 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$190 (-19%) realized −$188 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$148
other 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.5% -25.3% 36% 36% -32.4%
≤30d 11 -17.5% -25.3% 36% 36% -32.4%
≤90d 11 -17.5% -25.3% 36% 36% -32.4%
all 11 -17.5% -25.3% 36% 36% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 36% -32.4%
10% -32.5% 36% -38.8%
15% -39.0% 36% -44.7%
20% -45.0% 36% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$69 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$188
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $97 $97 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $98 +$147 +149%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 −$98 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $79 −$78 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 +$37 +73%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$63 +124%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$10 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $99 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $96 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $51 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $245 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $98 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $100 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $99 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $79 26h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 38h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 46¢ $40 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.14 · official $189.14 (match) · 18 history records