Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A7 0xa739…c23d other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$603 (-6%) realized −$603 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$526
7 days+$526
14 days+$526
30 days−$1,347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1,659
sports 26% +$852
world 10% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +120.5% +99.5% 50% 50% +103.6%
≤30d 5 -11.8% -20.2% 20% 20% -62.7%
≤90d 38 -15.2% -23.2% 29% 29% -16.8%
all 38 -15.2% -23.2% 29% 29% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 29% -16.8%
10% -30.6% 29% -24.7%
15% -37.3% 29% -32.0%
20% -43.4% 24% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$430 vs −$204 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$603
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage70d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $205 −$102 -50%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $216 +$628 +291%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $869 −$854 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 30 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 30 $508 −$508 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 15 $445 −$445 -100%
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? May 13 $407 −$407 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $408 +$672 +165%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score May 12 $203 +$154 +76%
Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $204 +$100 +49%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $152 −$152 -100%
Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score May 09 $506 +$371 +73%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 09 $254 −$13 -5%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $754 +$271 +36%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $256 +$499 +195%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $512 −$512 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $409 −$409 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $410 −$398 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $476 +$348 +73%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $203 −$203 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $446 +$326 +73%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $205 +$703 +344%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5 May 01 $46 −$46 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5 May 01 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs regain (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Nort May 01 $10 −$2 -22%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 01 $200 −$200 -100%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 May 01 $205 +$653 +319%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or mo Apr 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12 Apr 09 $10 −$4 -40%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 −$5 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $143 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 11¢ $103 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $205 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $844 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $216 9h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $869 18d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $511 34d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 34d
FC Barcelona leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $407 35d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,080 35d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $357 36d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $445 36d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $408 36d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $203 36d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $244 37d
Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $12 38d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 38d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 54¢ $304 38d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 35¢ $153 38d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 38d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 39d
Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $506 39d
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $241 39d
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $254 39d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,025 40d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 57¢ $754 40d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? SELL Yes 76¢ $755 41d
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 16¢ $246 42d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 25¢ $256 42d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.00 · official $140.00 (match) · 84 history records