Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa73a…b6a5 other 15 markets active 20h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,891 (+32%) realized +$2,073 · open +$818
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$5,100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$485
7 days−$795
14 days−$795
30 days−$745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% +$818
other 11% −$994
sports 2% +$333
crypto 2% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.8% -22.0% 15% 15% -64.9%
≤30d 14 +1.3% -8.4% 21% 21% -60.4%
≤90d 14 +1.3% -8.4% 21% 21% -60.4%
all 14 +1.3% -8.4% 21% 21% -60.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 21% -60.4%
10% -17.1% 21% -64.2%
15% -25.1% 21% -67.6%
20% -32.5% 21% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$107 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$5,100
Realized+$2,073
Unrealized+$818
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage19d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,282 $5,100 +$818 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $503 −$490 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $85 −$42 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$8 -29%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $47 +$53 +114%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 23 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $46 +$326 +712%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $73 −$71 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $319 −$310 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $26 +$50 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $169 19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $36 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 20h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $19 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 4¢ $99 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $102 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $47 23h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $768 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $157 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 26h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $99 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $73 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $28 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $46 26h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $442 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $148 4d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $148 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 4d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,100.00 · official $5,100.00 (match) · 89 history records