Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A7 0xa73a…656a sports 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$15,931 (-11%) realized −$15,894 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate52%65W / 59L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,035per market
Trades / day78.8pace
Fees−$1,512est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,928
other 1% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +65.9% +50.1% 56% 47% -8.5%
≤30d 71 +36.4% +23.4% 55% 44% -13.5%
≤90d 124 +37.2% +24.1% 52% 36% -12.8%
all 124 +37.2% +24.1% 52% 36% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.1% 36% -12.8%
10% +12.2% 31% -21.2%
15% ← realistic here +1.4% 25% -28.8%
20% -8.5% 23% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$1,790) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +40% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
22.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$226 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$3,282
Realized−$15,894
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses65 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$1,512
Open positions15
Markets (closed)124 / 136
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$1,035
Trades / day78.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 65¢ 74¢ $498 $567 +$69 (+14%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 85¢ 99¢ $308 $359 +$51 (+17%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 57¢ 47¢ $427 $352 −$75 (-18%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 62¢ $265 $310 +$45 (+17%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 58¢ $275 $292 +$17 (+6%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 66¢ 48¢ $355 $256 −$100 (-28%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ 42¢ $305 $254 −$51 (-17%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 29¢ 52¢ $106 $191 +$84 (+79%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Washington Nationals 41¢ 26¢ $245 $153 −$92 (-37%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 47¢ 51¢ $77 $84 +$7 (+9%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 51¢ 97¢ $38 $73 +$35 (+91%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 49¢ 96¢ $37 $72 +$35 (+95%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 55¢ 92¢ $41 $69 +$27 (+66%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ 64¢ $69 $64 −$4 (-7%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 61¢ 84¢ $46 $63 +$17 (+37%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ 57¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Seattle Mariners 49¢ 52¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs 31¢ 36¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+15%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals 46¢ 8¢ $36 $7 −$30 (-82%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 15¢ 1¢ $31 $2 −$29 (-94%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 49¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Jun 27 $0 +$45 +21829%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $298 −$81 -27%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $142 +$23 +16%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $22 −$21 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $18 +$19 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $55 +$58 +106%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $38 −$1 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $29 −$28 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $35 +$39 +109%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $53 +$45 +86%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $38 −$1 -2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $35 +$36 +101%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $18 +$19 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $49 −$49 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $127 +$37 +29%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $24 +$1 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $185 −$67 -36%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $396 +$55 +14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $218 +$38 +17%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $102 +$19 +18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $222 −$17 -8%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $332 +$4 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $103 −$32 -31%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $243 −$15 -6%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $187 +$16 +8%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $20 +$5 +27%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $13 +$12 +89%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $20 +$17 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $132 +$118 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $124 +$126 +101%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $663 −$70 -10%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $186 −$128 -69%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $469 +$164 +35%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $500 +$114 +23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $892 −$546 -61%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5,247 −$315 -6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $3,879 +$85 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $4,471 −$174 -4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $484 +$106 +22%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3,212 −$236 -7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1,890 −$826 -44%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $2,939 −$401 -14%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $2,690 +$11 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $3,488 −$775 -22%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $134 −$134 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $422 −$35 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 23¢ $10 1m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 23¢ $6 1m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 23¢ $1 1m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 23¢ $2 1m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 23¢ $3 1m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $16 2m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 73¢ $4 3m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 74¢ $19 6m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 25¢ $3 11m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $1 13m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $18 13m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $14 13m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $20 13m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $1 14m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $23 14m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $3 14m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 68¢ $27 15m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 74¢ $36 17m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 73¢ $4 19m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $32 24m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $32 25m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $6 25m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $16 25m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 80¢ $40 28m
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 26¢ $13 29m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $2 31m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $36 31m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 22¢ $12 31m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 74¢ $8 31m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 74¢ $24 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,282.01 · official $3,280.79 (match) · 3500 history records