Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa73a…8bc5 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$3
other 18% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 20 -5.3% -14.3% 30% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 20 -5.3% -14.3% 30% 5% -10.0%
all 36 -5.6% -14.6% 44% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 3% -10.2%
10% -22.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage450d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $32 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $66 −$4 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $35 −$3 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $59 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 -19%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 18 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $32 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $32 32h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $32 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $29 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $7 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $22 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 5¢ $2 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 5¢ $2 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $32 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $32 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.82 · official $1.82 (match) · 106 history records