Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa73b…41d8 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$65
sports 8% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 33% -45.8%
≤30d 6 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 33% -45.8%
≤90d 6 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 33% -45.8%
all 6 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 33% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 33% -45.8%
10% -46.9% 33% -51.0%
15% -52.0% 33% -55.8%
20% -56.7% 0% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 −$73 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $33 −$1 -4%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $33 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.71 · official $4.71 (match) · 11 history records