Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa753…59ac other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$56 (+8%) realized +$30 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days+$1
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$43
world 31% +$24
politics 14% +$4
sports 13% −$17
crypto 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +66.0% +50.2% 56% 56% -13.3%
≤30d 39 +39.3% +26.0% 49% 49% -1.9%
≤90d 41 +37.5% +24.4% 51% 46% -3.9%
all 41 +37.5% +24.4% 51% 46% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.4% 46% -3.9%
10% +12.5% 39% -13.1%
15% +1.6% 34% -21.5%
20% -8.3% 32% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage37d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $35 $48 +$13 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +54%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +244%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$6 +23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$30 +1410%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $5 +$2 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $2 +$6 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $25 +$33 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 25 $1 +$6 +607%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $109 +$23 +21%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 16 $108 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 50¢ $2 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $4 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $2 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $4 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $34 6d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 8d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.52 · official $160.52 (match) · 107 history records