Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa756…d1fd other 56 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$15 (+9%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%25W / 20L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$22
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$29
sports 25% +$9
world 9% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +86.9% +69.1% 63% 63% +27.7%
≤30d 45 +45.3% +31.5% 56% 56% +25.8%
≤90d 45 +45.3% +31.5% 56% 56% +25.8%
all 45 +45.3% +31.5% 56% 56% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.5% 56% +25.8%
10% +18.9% 47% +13.8%
15% +7.4% 40% +2.8%
20% -3.1% 33% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses25 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 56
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +36%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +226%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +29%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 -24%
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $3 $0 -18%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $3 $0 +11%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 +$6 +539%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 +17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +188%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$1 +36%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 +$12 +596%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 +$1 +146%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $5 +$10 +203%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 20 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +197%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY 77¢ $10 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND France to score first vs. N BUY 23¢ $3 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY $4 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY $12 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 12¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 63¢ $5 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY $5 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY 27¢ $1 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 25¢ $26 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes $3 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $3 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $1 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.94 (match) · 86 history records