Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa758…444d crypto 952 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$291 (-2%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%493W / 459L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$214
14 days−$427
30 days−$1,364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$765
tech 4% −$98
other 3% −$162
weather 1% −$34
finance 1% −$38
sports 0% −$17
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -23.8% -31.1% 42% 38% -26.3%
≤30d 606 -14.3% -22.5% 49% 46% -25.9%
≤90d 952 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 47% -17.5%
all 952 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 47% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 47% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 43% -25.4%
15% -34.1% 33% -32.6%
20% -40.6% 23% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses493 / 459
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)952 / 952
History coverage54d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 952 Trades
no open positions (335 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +68%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +43%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $35 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2720 history records