Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa75c…a622 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 766d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$751 (-20%) realized −$733 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$63
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$693
tech 20% −$14
sports 10% −$35
politics 3% −$2
world 1% −$33
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.0% -55.6% 0% 0% -16.6%
≤30d 3 +2.4% -7.3% 33% 33% -15.9%
≤90d 3 +2.4% -7.3% 33% 33% -15.9%
all 13 -41.1% -46.7% 23% 23% -50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.7% 23% -50.5%
10% -51.8% 23% -55.3%
15% -56.5% 8% -59.6%
20% -60.7% 8% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$77 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

766d coverage
Net worth$1,002
Realized−$733
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage766d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $747 $725 −$21 (-3%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ 40¢ $273 $276 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $758 −$14 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Feb 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi Feb 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 27 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? Jun 02 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? May 23 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Tyson Fury beat Oleksandr Usyk in Ring of Fire? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $757 1h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $278 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $381 23h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $143 23h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $73 23h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $20 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $11 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $20 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $24 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $25 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $12 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $14 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $758 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $1,017 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $49 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $11 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 10d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $3 115d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $12 115d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $19 115d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 53¢ $24 122d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 53¢ $32 122d
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win BUY No 53¢ $600 122d
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi BUY Yes 2¢ $0 124d
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi BUY Yes 2¢ $0 124d
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi BUY Yes 2¢ $0 124d
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi BUY Yes 2¢ $0 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,001.97 · official $1,001.97 (match) · 49 history records