Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa75c…895e other 574 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$52,026 (+40%) realized +$50,775 · open +$1,251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate33%102W / 210L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day77.7pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$22,836now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$2,755
tech 17% −$325
sports 14% −$1,987
world 9% −$475
politics 7% −$14
finance 3% −$55
crypto 0% +$274
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +21.7% +10.1% 43% 7% -12.9%
≤30d 290 -16.9% -24.8% 30% 7% -19.0%
≤90d 312 -4.6% -13.7% 33% 9% -18.6%
all 312 -4.6% -13.7% 33% 9% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 9% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 7% -26.4%
15% -29.5% 7% -33.5%
20% -36.4% 6% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$48 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$22,836
Realized+$50,775
Unrealized+$1,251
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses102 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions458
Markets (closed)312 / 574
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$226
Trades / day77.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 458 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 94¢ 89¢ $2,973 $2,816 −$156 (-5%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Yes 62¢ 76¢ $1,511 $1,834 +$323 (+21%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $1,063 $1,069 +$6 (+1%)
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $943 $1,063 +$120 (+13%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $904 $911 +$8 (+1%)
Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 92¢ 94¢ $805 $824 +$20 (+2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $760 $755 −$5 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 88¢ $509 $722 +$213 (+42%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 47¢ 48¢ $691 $698 +$7 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 92¢ 83¢ $680 $611 −$69 (-10%)
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 AL East title? No 92¢ 98¢ $522 $554 +$32 (+6%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 54¢ $360 $540 +$180 (+50%)
Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader? No 97¢ 95¢ $501 $488 −$13 (-3%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $249 $416 +$167 (+67%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $403 $401 −$2 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%? No 84¢ 82¢ $329 $325 −$4 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $278 $282 +$4 (+1%)
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 2¢ 50¢ $12 $277 +$264 (+2128%)
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 NL West title? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $251 $276 +$25 (+10%)
Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award? No 96¢ 83¢ $295 $254 −$40 (-14%)
Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No 96¢ 96¢ $248 $247 −$1 (-0%)
Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 71¢ $4 $230 +$226 (+6006%)
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? No 97¢ 97¢ $210 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year? No 72¢ 72¢ $208 $207 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sonny Gray strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 97¢ 99¢ $195 $198 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 17 $281 −$280 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3,000 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $221 −$196 -89%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Jun 17 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 17 $171 −$21 -12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 NL West title? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -39%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,128 +$10 +1%
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 16 $1 +$27 +4917%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $440 +$10 +2%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $263 +$3 +1%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $500 $0 -0%
Will Christian Walker win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? Jun 15 $1 $0 -48%
Will Ke'Bryan Hayes win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? Jun 15 $23 +$2 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $270 −$32 -12%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 15 $79 −$10 -12%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 15 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 15 $191 +$9 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 14 $2,383 +$62 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Raji Rab advance from the 2026 California Governor primary electi Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aaron Judge have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regu Jun 13 $302 −$243 -81%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 13 $135 −$67 -50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 13 $2,127 −$27 -1%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $176 +$8 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $73 +$51 +70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $634 +$16 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $7,332 −$174 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3,422 −$144 -4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $231 +$13 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $407 +$8 +2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $21 −$1 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $3,449 −$49 -1%
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $313 +$17 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 11 $306 −$6 -2%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 11 $60 −$28 -47%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 11 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $11 +$4 +38%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $232 +$126 +55%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $372 +$78 +21%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Ser Jun 10 $716 +$458 +64%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 09 $104 +$5 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor SELL No 92¢ $0 31m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $32 33m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 36m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $17 44m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 46m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 49m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 51m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $0 56m
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY No 46¢ $23 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Doosan Bears BUY Kiwoom Heroes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Doosan Bears BUY Kiwoom Heroes 49¢ $1 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Doosan Bears BUY Kiwoom Heroes 49¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $243 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $245 1h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $232 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $233 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $760 1h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $291 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $254 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $150 2h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $754 2h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $11 2h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 3h
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? SELL Yes 22¢ $127 3h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL No 81¢ $1 3h
Will Sam Smith perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 96¢ $37 3h
Will Sam Smith perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY No 96¢ $11 3h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 4¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,836.07 · official $22,837.03 (match) · 3500 history records