Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa75e…26f2 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$33 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate79%44W / 12L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$7
crypto 19% +$3
finance 12% +$7
world 10% $0
politics 8% +$3
tech 1% +$2
economics 1% −$2
sports 1% +$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +6.9% -3.3% 70% 30% -5.7%
≤90d 31 +4.2% -5.7% 81% 26% -6.0%
all 56 +3.3% -6.5% 79% 21% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 21% -6.9%
10% -15.5% 12% -15.8%
15% -23.6% 2% -23.9%
20% -31.1% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses44 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)56 / 76
History coverage130d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 88¢ 87¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 93¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 54¢ 19¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 05 $17 −$1 -4%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $18 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $12 +$3 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 21 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 21 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $7 +$2 +31%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 05 $29 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $15 +$1 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 05 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $11 +$2 +20%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 06 $44 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 06 $9 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 06 $30 +$1 +2%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 06 $4 +$1 +16%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 06 $33 +$12 +37%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $5 $0 +4%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $29 +$4 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 21 $5 $0 +1%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 21 $15 $0 +3%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $5 +$1 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $50 $0 +1%
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 03 $5 $0 +1%
Fabric FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 03 $5 $0 +1%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 03 $7 +$3 +35%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 03 $9 +$1 +8%
Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 03 $10 $0 +4%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will OpenSea be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will AAVE be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $30 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $19 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 27 $68 $0 +0%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 25 $8 $0 +5%
Flying Tulip FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 25 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $14 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $14 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $14 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $14 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $11 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 6d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $18 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.11 · official $67.79 · 235 history records