Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa761…ba1f world 52 markets active 4d ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$567 (-8%) realized −$567 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 37L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day161.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$81
14 days−$82
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$6
other 2% +$135
finance 2% +$63
tech 1% −$6
sports 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (161 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -15.8% -23.8% 26% 11% -25.6%
≤30d 53 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 17% -7.9%
≤90d 53 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 17% -7.9%
all 53 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 17% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover161.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 17% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 15% -16.7%
15% -26.1% 11% -24.8%
20% -33.4% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
34.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×5.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 52
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$136
Trades / day161.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Jun 18 $53 −$55 -104%
La Bisbal: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebecca Sramkova Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $77 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$3 +12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $3 $0 -15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $49 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +153%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 25 $106 +$65 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 70¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $9 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $4 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 89¢ $18 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 11¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 15¢ $2 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 16¢ $2 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 16¢ $2 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 78¢ $8 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 80¢ $8 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 14¢ $1 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 15¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 78¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records