Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa766…3aaa world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$8
other 31% −$1
politics 7% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 4% −$2
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 57% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 55% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 55% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -5.8% -14.7% 46% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -11.3%
10% -22.9% 0% -19.8%
15% -30.4% 0% -27.5%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage468d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 15 $8 $0 +2%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 28 $8 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $12 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $50 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $21 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $21 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $22 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $24 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records