Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa768…0971
weather · 1302 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$285 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$285 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$262
Realized−$285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1258 / 48
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1306 / 1302
Avg bet$9
Trades / day206.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 32 History 1306 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$307
7 days−$298
14 days−$308
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? No 100¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 98¢ 97¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? No 99¢ 96¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 8? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 9? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 16? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 3? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 1? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 10? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 2? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 5? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 5? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on May Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 1? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 29? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 29? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 6? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 2 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 9? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 9? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on May 5? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 6? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 7? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $9 18m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $9 25m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 27m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $8 55m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 584 -5.9% -14.9% 93% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 1306 -2.5% -11.8% 96% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 1306 -2.5% -11.8% 96% 0% -11.7%
all 1306 -2.5% -11.8% 96% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover206.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 0% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 0% -20.1%
15% -27.9% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.23 · official $260.80 (match) · 3500 history records