Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A7 0xa76b…39c6 world 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$2
other 25% $0
sports 6% +$5
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 0% -8.9%
all 20 +4.2% -5.7% 60% 5% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 5% -7.8%
10% -14.7% 5% -16.6%
15% -23.0% 5% -24.7%
20% -30.5% 5% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.77 per $1 lost it wins $4.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage486d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $67 +$3 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $72 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $77 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 27 $9 $0 +3%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $11 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 11 $1 $0 +0%
Rutgers vs. Washington Mar 04 $7 +$5 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 5m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $36 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $17 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $4 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $2 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $28 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $37 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $27 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $36 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $12 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $1 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $27 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $40 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $34 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $34 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.81 · official $3.81 (match) · 75 history records