Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa76b…c054 other 12 markets active 17h ago coverage 157d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+2%) realized +$245 · open −$184
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$58
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$125
politics 21% +$200
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -44.5% -49.8% 50% 50% +0.2%
≤30d 3 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -4.4%
≤90d 3 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -4.4%
all 4 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 50% +8.0%
10% -29.8% 25% -2.3%
15% -36.6% 25% -11.8%
20% -42.8% 0% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
27.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$8 · ×17.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.59 per $1 lost it wins $17.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$2,324
Realized+$245
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)4 / 12
History coverage157d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 52¢ $830 $744 −$85 (-10%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 42¢ $460 $415 −$45 (-10%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $417 $412 −$5 (-1%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 64¢ $116 $256 +$140 (+121%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $246 $166 −$80 (-32%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 64¢ $122 $161 +$39 (+32%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 27¢ 14¢ $307 $151 −$156 (-51%)
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 47¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $541 +$59 +11%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $234 −$14 -6%
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municip Mar 15 $560 +$215 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 16h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $229 3d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $355 3d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $250 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $219 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $104 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $218 3d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $425 4d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $9 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $0 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $12 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $1 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $2 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $4 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $6 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 31¢ $16 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 31¢ $26 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 30¢ $25 7d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $168 7d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $84 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 28¢ $20 7d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $11 9d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $13 9d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $1 9d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $2 9d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $5 9d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $5 9d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 26¢ $7 9d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $50 9d
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,324.34 · official $2,324.34 (match) · 358 history records