Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A7 0xa76c…dc83 other 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,293 (-11%) realized −$4,449 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%149W / 141L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$582
7 days−$1,308
14 days−$1,443
30 days−$3,853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$3,165
crypto 22% −$542
sports 15% +$533
culture 4% −$1,541
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -44.6% -49.9% 18% 18% -46.9%
≤30d 52 -29.2% -36.0% 29% 23% -40.7%
≤90d 290 -9.3% -17.9% 51% 41% -21.7%
all 290 -9.3% -17.9% 51% 41% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 41% -21.7%
10% -25.8% 34% -29.2%
15% -33.0% 29% -36.0%
20% -39.5% 23% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$115 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,751
Realized−$4,449
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses149 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions4
Markets (closed)290 / 294
History coverage90d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $570 $560 −$10 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $510 $508 −$2 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $415 $406 −$9 (-2%)
Raphinha: 2+ goals Yes 18¢ 50¢ $100 $277 +$177 (+177%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $209 +$293 +140%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $162 +$129 +79%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $326 −$326 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $261 −$261 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $742 −$742 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $205 +$864 +422%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $171 −$171 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $166 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $307 +$13 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $135 +$145 +107%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 09 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 09 $154 −$154 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 09 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 09 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 09 $411 −$411 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $205 +$289 +142%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $602 +$829 +138%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 03 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $572 −$572 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $194 +$241 +124%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 30 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 30 $632 −$632 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 30 $541 −$541 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $102 +$79 +77%
Will Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? May 25 $53 −$2 -4%
Will Charlotte FC vs. New England Revolution end in a draw? May 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $103 +$261 +254%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $214 +$412 +192%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $122 +$92 +76%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $102 −$83 -81%
Will FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw? May 24 $174 +$1 +0%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 23 $91 +$189 +208%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $534 −$443 -83%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata end in a dr May 23 $393 −$62 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Raphinha: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 37¢ $581 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $523 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $427 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $175 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $149 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $348 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $502 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $209 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $291 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $162 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $122 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $153 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,069 5d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $75 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 6d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $55 7d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,750.98 · official $1,750.98 (match) · 857 history records