Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa76d…f606 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized +$3 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$4
other 38% −$5
politics 15% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +45.9% +32.0% 25% 25% -9.2%
≤30d 12 +45.9% +32.0% 25% 25% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +45.9% +32.0% 25% 25% -9.2%
all 12 +45.9% +32.0% 25% 25% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.0% 25% -9.2%
10% +19.4% 25% -17.9%
15% +7.9% 17% -25.8%
20% -2.7% 17% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +157% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$6 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +225%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$34 +1115%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $33 +$11 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $19 −$4 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 47m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 47m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $13 54m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 44h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 44h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 45h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 45h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $33 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 46h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 5¢ $14 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.11 · official $3.11 (match) · 24 history records