Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa76d…3e8e crypto 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,000 (-24%) realized −$4,111 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%59W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days−$2,759
14 days−$2,783
30 days−$2,777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$3,418
other 33% −$990
crypto 29% +$377
world 1% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -5.3% -14.3% 45% 41% -42.6%
≤30d 98 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 46% -32.9%
≤90d 124 -8.1% -16.8% 48% 46% -34.0%
all 124 -8.1% -16.8% 48% 46% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 46% -34.0%
10% -24.8% 44% -40.3%
15% -32.0% 39% -46.0%
20% -38.7% 35% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$127 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1,721
Realized−$4,111
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses59 / 65
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions18
Markets (closed)124 / 142
History coverage44d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $467 $477 +$10 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $395 $469 +$74 (+19%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $220 $211 −$9 (-4%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $159 $144 −$15 (-9%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 70¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 30¢ 42¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $35 $52 +$18 (+50%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 52¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-48%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Yes 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $96 +$82 +86%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $324 −$7 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$27 +55%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $85 −$83 -98%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $60 −$50 -83%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $169 +$94 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 −$81 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $117 −$115 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$24 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $75 +$142 +188%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 16 $29 +$90 +315%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 +$202 +180%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $256 −$36 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,353 −$1,345 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $648 −$642 -99%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $127 −$8 -7%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $126 −$1 -1%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $76 +$2 +2%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $737 −$728 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $401 +$93 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $141 +$32 +23%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $290 +$69 +24%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $37 +$39 +106%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $352 +$104 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$9 +46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $267 −$265 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $7 +$13 +183%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $252 +$264 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $51 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $347 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $101 5h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $96 13h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $92 13h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $316 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 16h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 24¢ $9 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $121 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 16h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $12 16h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $48 17h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 18h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 70¢ $17 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $51 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $101 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $15 28h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 28h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,721.44 · official $1,718.10 (match) · 508 history records