Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A7 0xa76e…dcb6 sports 647 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,887 (+10%) realized +$11,175 · open +$712
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%325W / 313L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$1,511est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,086
7 days+$799
14 days+$985
30 days+$1,396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,566
other 11% +$5,287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +15.8% +4.7% 31% 28% -1.5%
≤30d 190 -4.1% -13.2% 43% 43% -6.6%
≤90d 638 +4.4% -5.5% 51% 51% -4.3%
all 638 +4.4% -5.5% 51% 51% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 51% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 50% -13.5%
15% -22.8% 49% -21.8%
20% -30.4% 46% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$155 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$4,190
Realized+$11,175
Unrealized+$712
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses325 / 313
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,511
Open positions11
Markets (closed)638 / 647
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$177
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 83¢ $487 $834 +$347 (+71%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Over 41¢ 100¢ $205 $500 +$295 (+144%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 90¢ $260 $452 +$192 (+74%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Monte 61¢ 58¢ $422 $404 −$18 (-4%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Under 52¢ 76¢ $260 $380 +$120 (+46%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 36¢ $208 $355 +$147 (+70%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 68¢ $275 $340 +$65 (+24%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 32¢ $606 $334 −$272 (-45%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Under 45¢ 46¢ $231 $236 +$5 (+2%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 45¢ $205 $225 +$20 (+10%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $136 $70 −$66 (-48%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 12¢ $117 $60 −$57 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $2,370 +$630 +27%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $604 −$602 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 25 $270 −$270 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $205 −$205 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 25 $284 +$216 +76%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $245 +$5 +2%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $275 −$275 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $255 −$255 -100%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 24 $215 −$215 -100%
Amar Memić: 1+ goals Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 24 $523 −$515 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 24 $33 +$28 +85%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $114 −$114 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $190 +$310 +163%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $581 +$939 +162%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 23 $228 −$228 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $330 +$270 +82%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $180 −$180 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $135 −$135 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $168 −$168 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $264 −$260 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $208 −$204 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $215 +$285 +133%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 22 $205 −$205 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $1,652 +$3,747 +227%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $2,169 −$940 -43%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $1,074 −$788 -73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $482 +$468 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $306 +$304 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 16 $225 −$225 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $352 +$359 +102%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $532 +$704 +132%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $417 +$638 +153%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $368 −$285 -78%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $250 +$250 +100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $91 +$55 +60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,018 +$493 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $235 +$165 +70%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $118 −$15 -13%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +96%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $279 +$221 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $243 +$157 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 61¢ $36 32m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $71 37m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $218 37m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $43 37m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $0 37m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $8 37m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $15 38m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $5 39m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $6 39m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $20 39m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $20 39m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $2 39m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $122 39m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $75 39m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $6 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $260 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $23 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 58¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 59¢ $39 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $183 1h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $120 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $51 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $249 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $11 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $11 6h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $16 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $14 7h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $203 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $17 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,190.22 · official $4,136.72 · 3500 history records