Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A7 0xa774…005f sports 683 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 192d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,843 (-1%) realized −$1,929 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%354W / 412L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 193d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$3,333
world 28% +$1,297
other 21% +$1,687
politics 9% +$203
finance 3% −$829
crypto 2% −$248
tech 1% −$209
culture 0% +$225
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -77.2% -79.4% 12% 8% -56.9%
≤30d 168 -54.1% -58.5% 23% 20% -36.7%
≤90d 509 -17.1% -25.0% 43% 30% -17.7%
all 766 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 35% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 35% -15.6%
10% -28.8% 31% -23.6%
15% -35.7% 28% -31.0%
20% -42.0% 23% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$98 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$2,077
Realized−$1,929
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses354 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions5
Markets (closed)766 / 683
History coverage193d ⚠
Avg bet$230
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 766 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,148 $1,155 +$7 (+1%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $678 $794 +$116 (+17%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 56¢ 32¢ $129 $72 −$56 (-44%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 57¢ 90¢ $34 $54 +$20 (+57%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 278 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Georgia vs. Auburn Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 152.5 Jun 18 $260 −$260 -100%
Bruins vs. Islanders Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-12-07? Jun 18 $188 −$188 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Canucks Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Hawks vs. Spurs Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-06? Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Spread: Northwestern Wildcats (-2.5) Jun 18 $470 −$470 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Jun 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: Stars (-1.5) Jun 18 $165 −$165 -100%
Islanders vs. Rangers Jun 18 $168 −$168 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 18 $174 −$174 -100%
Knicks vs. Bulls Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will anyone say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on Oc Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Wild vs. Canucks Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Wild vs. Capitals Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Spread: UNLV (-2.5) Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Sabres vs. Red Wings Jun 18 $144 −$144 -100%
Jaguars vs. Raiders Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Washington vs. Maryland Terrapins Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
TCU vs. Kansas State Jun 18 $123 −$123 -100%
Tigers vs. Mariners Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the New York Yankees be eliminated in the Division Series? Jun 18 $266 −$266 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Broncos vs. Texans Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 237.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Panthers Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Flames (-1.5) Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Jun 18 $124 −$124 -100%
Spread: Texas (-2.5) Jun 18 $123 −$123 -100%
LSU vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 48.5 Jun 18 $112 −$112 -100%
Spread: Islanders (-1.5) Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Blues vs. Islanders Jun 18 $220 −$220 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Oregon State vs. Appalachian State Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Flames vs. Flyers Jun 18 $233 −$233 -100%
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Oregon (-7.5) Jun 18 $164 −$163 -100%
Ducks vs. Red Wings Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Flames vs. Oilers Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Spread: Kansas State (-6.5) Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5 Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $131 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 69¢ $166 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $215 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $210 3h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $1,148 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 47¢ $94 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $73 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 19h
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo BUY No 57¢ $34 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $170 20h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 73¢ $36 20h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 73¢ $7 20h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 73¢ $103 20h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 87¢ $80 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $8 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 32h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 43¢ $57 33h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $111 33h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,077.23 · official $2,072.63 (match) · 3500 history records