Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa777…f03d crypto 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-18%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%60W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$42
sports 20% −$23
politics 14% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -5.6% -14.6% 36% 35% -15.5%
≤30d 159 -5.6% -14.6% 36% 35% -15.5%
≤90d 159 -5.6% -14.6% 36% 35% -15.5%
all 164 -6.4% -15.3% 37% 35% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 35% -28.6%
10% -23.4% 35% -35.4%
15% -30.8% 33% -41.6%
20% -37.6% 24% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses60 / 104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage146d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$39 +1182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records