Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa77b…9bbc other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-51.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -46.0% -51.1% 33% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 3 -46.0% -51.1% 33% 33% -9.3%
≤90d 3 -46.0% -51.1% 33% 33% -9.3%
all 3 -46.0% -51.1% 33% 33% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.1% 33% -9.3%
10% -55.8% 33% -18.0%
15% -60.1% 33% -25.9%
20% -64.0% 33% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$62 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $99 −$98 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $99 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.89 · official $156.89 (match) · 7 history records