Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa77e…6fad sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$85 (-6%) realized −$88 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$110
14 days+$24
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$176
other 4% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.4% -19.9% 50% 50% -22.0%
≤30d 22 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 41% -16.5%
≤90d 22 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 41% -16.5%
all 22 -8.5% -17.2% 45% 41% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 41% -16.5%
10% -25.1% 41% -24.5%
15% -32.4% 27% -31.8%
20% -39.0% 23% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$48 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage18d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 69¢ 70¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 80¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $191 +$65 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 −$98 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $75 +$25 +34%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $65 +$35 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $71 +$24 +34%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$94 +230%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $55 +$87 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $41 +$133 +325%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 122.5 Jun 06 $30 +$1 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $50 −$50 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $15 +$14 +90%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $20 +$10 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $101 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $91 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $101 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY New York Liberty 45¢ $0 3d
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY New York Liberty 45¢ $45 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $75 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $101 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $7 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $19 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $30 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $9 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $94 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $71 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $31 5d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $47 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $55 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $41 10d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $30 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $50 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 122.5 BUY Under 96¢ $30 15d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 64¢ $30 17d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $30 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $30 17d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $15 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.56 · official $201.11 (match) · 40 history records