Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa784…aac3 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,650 (+5%) realized +$1,650 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate60%43W / 29L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$167
other 46% −$2,871
sports 7% +$545
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -8.4% -17.1% 55% 30% -14.4%
≤30d 53 +6.4% -3.7% 64% 28% -11.4%
≤90d 72 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 29% -16.9%
all 72 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 29% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 29% -16.9%
10% -21.8% 17% -24.8%
15% -29.4% 10% -32.1%
20% -36.3% 6% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$704) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$196 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,650
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses43 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage71d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $198 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $304 +$52 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $807 −$660 -82%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,741 −$931 -54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,457 +$284 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,404 +$47 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1,205 +$193 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,093 +$131 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,051 +$36 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $27 −$19 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $953 +$113 +12%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$14 -66%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $921 +$32 +4%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $170 +$753 +442%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $709 −$704 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $851 +$17 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -91%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $609 +$165 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $106 −$45 -42%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $673 +$144 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $444 +$157 +35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $830 −$296 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $751 +$58 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $743 +$62 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $714 +$25 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$41 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $720 +$19 +3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$14 +734%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $722 +$20 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $672 +$46 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $635 +$23 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $620 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $596 +$30 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $557 +$34 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $551 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $456 +$93 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $423 +$38 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $377 +$50 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $488 −$488 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $465 +$15 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $189 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $167 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $676 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $131 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 40¢ $810 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,741 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,741 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,457 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,450 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,404 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $1,205 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,093 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,051 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL No 2¢ $7 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 5¢ $27 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,066 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $953 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 96¢ $921 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $170 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $709 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $851 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records