Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

A7 0xa788…f6e8 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$135 (-44%) realized −$100 · open −$35

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$100 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$170

Realized−$100

Unrealized−$35

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage9d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$92	$58	−$35 (-38%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$28	$28	+$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	67¢	68¢	$28	$28	+$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	88¢	88¢	$28	$28	−$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$28	$28	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	Jun 21	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$28	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	88¢	$28	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$28	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$28	1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30	BUY No	0¢	$100	2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$95	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.39 · official $170.39 (match) · 6 history records