Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa789…ac12 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+63%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 123d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +145.9% +122.5% 100% 100% +122.5%
≤30d 1 +145.9% +122.5% 100% 100% +122.5%
≤90d 1 +145.9% +122.5% 100% 100% +122.5%
all 11 -4.3% -13.4% 36% 27% +46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 27% +46.1%
10% -21.7% 27% +32.1%
15% -29.2% 27% +19.3%
20% -36.2% 27% +7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +146% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +61% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×5.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage123d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 20 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 19 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 19 $2 +$8 +397%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records