Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A7 0xa78e…7cbc sports 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$309 (-4%) realized −$299 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%118W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$363
14 days−$209
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$260
world 1% −$100
other 1% −$55
politics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -20.7% -28.3% 37% 37% -21.4%
≤30d 315 -6.1% -15.0% 37% 37% -17.7%
≤90d 322 -7.3% -16.1% 37% 37% -19.4%
all 322 -7.3% -16.1% 37% 37% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 37% -19.4%
10% -24.2% 36% -27.1%
15% -31.5% 36% -34.1%
20% -38.2% 34% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$22 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses118 / 204
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions1
Markets (closed)322 / 323
History coverage171d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $24 +$15 +62%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$12 +122%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 +$10 +79%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $18 +$6 +31%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$17 +110%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $25 +$19 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $27 −$5 -18%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$58 +190%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$10 +63%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 +$25 +65%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$17 +139%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$10 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$12 +78%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$16 +107%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$14 +95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$18 +88%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $39 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 59¢ $24 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ $10 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 93¢ $23 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $10 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $22 12h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 13h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY FlyQuest 48¢ $11 14h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular SELL KRÜ Spark 70¢ $24 15h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY KRÜ Spark 52¢ $18 15h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Evictix 36¢ $10 15h
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner BUY Pigeons 42¢ $15 16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $26 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 58¢ $15 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 27¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 22¢ $10 23h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 11¢ $4 23h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $16 24h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 96¢ $32 25h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $15 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 95¢ $44 28h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $25 28h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $15 29h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 52¢ $20 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 96¢ $6 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $3 30h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 33h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 548 history records