Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa798…d0ba sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$270 (+24%) realized +$20 · open +$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$349
other 44% +$164
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +28.9% +16.7% 67% 67% +25.1%
≤30d 12 +28.9% +16.7% 67% 67% +25.1%
≤90d 12 +28.9% +16.7% 67% 67% +25.1%
all 12 +28.9% +16.7% 67% 67% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 67% +25.1%
10% +5.5% 67% +13.1%
15% -4.7% 67% +2.2%
20% -14.0% 58% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$42 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$250
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 40¢ 99¢ $170 $420 +$250 (+147%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $80 −$79 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $253 +$170 +67%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$17 +82%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$16 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $42 +$22 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 +$81 +134%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 20 $51 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$22 +106%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $39 +$81 +206%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $29 −$29 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $173 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 6¢ $9 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 37¢ $153 29h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $80 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $56 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $423 31h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $37 31h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $56 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $46 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $30 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $65 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $42 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $20 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $253 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $142 2d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $75 2d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $42 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $61 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 31¢ $24 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $120 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 58¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $39 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.69 · official $419.90 (match) · 27 history records