Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa79c…5731 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$49 (+5%) realized +$42 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$111
14 days+$126
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$58
sports 7% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +16.1% +5.0% 65% 65% +5.4%
≤30d 19 +12.8% +2.1% 63% 63% +4.4%
≤90d 20 +7.2% -3.0% 60% 60% -3.8%
all 20 +7.2% -3.0% 60% 60% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 60% -3.8%
10% -12.3% 60% -13.0%
15% -20.8% 60% -21.4%
20% -28.6% 40% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$36 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage45d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$20 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +165%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$29 -57%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$28 +137%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 +$65 +70%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $73 −$70 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 44m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 53m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 45h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 45h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.22 · official $145.39 (match) · 48 history records