Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A7 0xa79d…921b crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$342 (+11%) realized +$335 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days+$281
14 days+$281
30 days+$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$276
other 37% +$458
crypto 14% −$275
weather 2% −$52
politics 2% −$50
tech 1% −$30
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -69.3% -72.3% 14% 14% +2.6%
≤30d 37 -60.8% -64.5% 19% 19% +4.4%
≤90d 39 -59.3% -63.2% 21% 21% +3.3%
all 39 -59.3% -63.2% 21% 21% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.2% 21% +3.3%
10% -66.7% 21% -6.6%
15% -69.9% 18% -15.6%
20% -72.9% 15% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$29 · ×5.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized+$335
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)39 / 45
History coverage138d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $330 $328 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 65¢ 66¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $126 $124 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 43¢ 44¢ $114 $116 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Portugal 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ 24¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $525 +$244 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $160 −$150 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $371 +$476 +128%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 −$105 -94%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 23 $32 −$32 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $212 +$268 +127%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $43 −$38 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 23? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 23? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 24? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 24? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 23? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 2 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 22 $90 +$84 +93%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $42 +$71 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 22 $40 +$14 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $12 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 10¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $128 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $333 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $112 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $303 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 40¢ $4 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $525 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $160 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $847 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $111 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $371 7h
Spread: France (-5.5) SELL France 0¢ $0 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $480 12h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 2¢ $4 12h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $43 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $212 25h
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France 12¢ $32 25h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 86¢ $113 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 47h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 29¢ $42 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $53 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $90 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $84 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $49 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $898.69 · official $898.69 (match) · 87 history records