Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A7 0xa79e…5e9e sports 730 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized +$7 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%679W / 48L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$36
14 days−$550
30 days−$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$406
other 24% −$121
politics 5% +$236
world 1% −$52
crypto 1% +$18
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -0.6% -10.1% 90% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 205 -1.7% -11.1% 90% 6% -10.8%
≤90d 727 -0.4% -9.9% 93% 5% -9.6%
all 727 -0.4% -9.9% 93% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 5% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$35 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses679 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions3
Markets (closed)727 / 730
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$240
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 727 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) IR Iran 99¢ 90¢ $307 $276 −$30 (-10%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) IR Iran 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -22%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $18 $0 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $608 +$5 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $173 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $63 +$3 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$1 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $60 +$1 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $158 +$2 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $13 −$5 -38%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $119 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 $0 +8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $129 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $11 $0 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $69 +$1 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $35 +$1 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $6 −$2 -37%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $198 +$2 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $28 +$2 +6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $27 +$1 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $220 +$3 +1%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $219 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $16 $0 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $199 +$1 +0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $189 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +7%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $184 +$2 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $178 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $4 3m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $100 9m
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $2 13m
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $71 13m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 99¢ $99 15m
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $17 16m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $100 16m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 22m
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY IR Iran 100¢ $60 32m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 93¢ $8 32m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $18 35m
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY IR Iran 98¢ $17 41m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $233 44m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $381 44m
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) BUY IR Iran 99¢ $20 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $199 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $3 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $33 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $165 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $200 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $15 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 97¢ $12 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $74 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $60 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $14 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $66 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.69 · official $288.77 · 3500 history records