Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa79f…c238
other · 47 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$10 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses28 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)34 / 47
History coverage229d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 13 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
French election called by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 99¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 90¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 24 $5 $0 +5%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 24 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +70%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $5 +$12 +233%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 07 $1 +$3 +300%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $1 $0 +5%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 03 $5 $0 +6%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Feb 03 $5 $0 +10%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 11 $5 $0 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 09 $10 +$2 +19%
Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by December 31? Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by November 30? Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japanese PM apologize for China comments in 2025? Jan 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Japan recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +5%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +10%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +11%
Japanese Snap Election Called by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $2 $0 +11%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $2 $0 +14%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Jan 01 $10 $0 +2%
Macron out in 2025? Jan 01 $10 $0 +4%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $11 +$1 +10%
French election called by December 31? Jan 01 $10 +$3 +32%
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31? Jan 01 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Nov 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31 Nov 01 $20 +$3 +14%
French election called by October 31? Nov 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$11
politics 39% +$8
world 18% −$8
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 64d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 64d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 70¢ $1 65d
Will France strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 80d
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 100¢ $20 84d
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 84d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $1 103d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $1 106d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $10 147d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 95¢ $5 152d
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 152d
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? BUY No 95¢ $1 152d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 152d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 152d
US strike on Mexico by January 31? BUY No 94¢ $5 152d
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 156d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? BUY No 91¢ $5 156d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY No 98¢ $5 156d
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 158d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 158d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 158d
Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam BUY No 75¢ $10 160d
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St BUY Yes 62¢ $10 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +42.9% +29.3% 100% 100% +29.3%
≤30d 1 +42.9% +29.3% 100% 100% +29.3%
≤90d 7 -2.2% -11.5% 86% 29% -8.4%
all 34 +7.7% -2.5% 82% 35% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 35% -13.0%
10% -11.9% 18% -21.3%
15% -20.4% 12% -28.9%
20% -28.2% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.78 · official $34.78 (match) · 85 history records