Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7a1…d6e0 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%13W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
other 23% −$2
politics 11% −$1
tech 8% $0
finance 5% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.4%
all 45 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses13 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage331d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $38 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $28 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $75 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22? Aug 20 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 18 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by Sunday, July 27? Aug 10 $59 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $7 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $4 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $27 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $38 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $6 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $6 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $38 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $38 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $13 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $25 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $34 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $31 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $31 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $28 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $28 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $37 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $37 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records