Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7a1…4988 crypto 484 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$78 (+6%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%262W / 222L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day40.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$65
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +12.1% +1.5% 58% 58% +2.6%
≤30d 484 +3.4% -6.4% 54% 54% -5.2%
≤90d 484 +3.4% -6.4% 54% 54% -5.2%
all 484 +3.4% -6.4% 54% 54% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 54% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 54% -14.3%
15% -23.5% 54% -22.6%
20% -31.0% 54% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses262 / 222
Open positions0
Markets (closed)484 / 484
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day40.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 484 Trades
no open positions (222 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 758 history records