Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa7a1…a85e
weather · 992 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$877 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$877 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$219
Realized−$877
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses722 / 242
Open positions28
Markets (closed)964 / 992
History coverage54d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day55.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 28 History 964 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$1
14 days−$47
30 days−$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 92¢ 95¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? No 93¢ 92¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? No 96¢ 97¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? No 94¢ 97¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 90¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? No 92¢ 84¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 93¢ 78¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-17%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? No 91¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? No 93¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 93¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? No 93¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $14 −$5 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% −$541
crypto 11% −$106
other 7% −$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 63¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $21 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $3 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $3 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $14 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 3% -9.5%
≤30d 536 -7.1% -15.9% 75% 21% -12.4%
≤90d 964 -6.4% -15.3% 75% 23% -14.2%
all 964 -6.4% -15.3% 75% 23% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 23% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 9% -22.4%
15% -30.8% 5% -29.9%
20% -37.6% 3% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.19 · official $219.18 (match) · 3500 history records