Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7a2…10e3 politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$4
sports 22% −$1
other 16% −$1
crypto 11% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 3% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 36 -5.6% -14.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage220d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $106 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $109 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $110 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $107 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $109 +$1 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $215 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 23 $107 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 14 $221 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $106 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Dec 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $108 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 03 $1 $0 -38%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $2 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $221 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ariana Grande be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 14 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 53m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 53m
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 54m
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 8d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 99d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21? BUY No 100¢ $109 116d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 123d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 136d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $110 137d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $110 139d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 140d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $107 141d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 142d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $107 145d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $105 146d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $106 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.12 · official $5.12 (match) · 160 history records